Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is set to launch a nationwide protest movement beginning August 5, demanding the release of its imprisoned founder, former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The campaign also aims to push back against what the party calls “politically motivated” suppression and demonstrate mass public support to the country’s “real decision-makers” — a clear nod to Pakistan’s powerful military establishment.

In parallel, the military-backed Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government has announced the creation of a new paramilitary force tasked with internal security, riot control, and counter-terrorism — further cementing the military’s dominance in civilian affairs.

Khan has been imprisoned since August 2023, facing a slew of cases, including charges related to the violent protests that erupted on May 9 following his arrest. Despite being behind bars and his party facing one of the most aggressive crackdowns in its history, PTI-backed independent candidates still managed to win a majority in the 2024 general elections — a testament to Khan’s enduring political clout.

However, Khan’s popularity has recently run into headwinds. A fresh round of military clashes with India in May stirred nationalist sentiments, leading to renewed public support for the army. Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir was even promoted to field marshal, underscoring the military’s elevated standing. In a post shared on social media on July 25, Khan declared that Pakistan was not under Martial Law, but “Asim Law.”

Still, PTI insiders now suggest that there’s a growing push within the party to tone down its anti-army rhetoric.

“We stood by the army during the war with India. [Imran Khan] needs to acknowledge the ground realities and think long-term,” a PTI leader told The Diplomat, highlighting internal calls for reconciliation with the military.

Taimur Jhagra, a former member of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial assembly, confirmed disagreements within the party over strategy, but said there was unanimous support for Khan’s release. “Everyone will unite for Imran Khan. He enjoys support beyond party lines — he enjoys the support of the nation,” said Jhagra.

Despite the appearance of unity ahead of the August 5 demonstrations, recent events have highlighted PTI’s organizational disarray. The last major protest, held in November, was abruptly canceled amid government crackdowns and internal divisions. Ali Amin Gandapur, Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and a key PTI figure, has been accused of aligning too closely with the military.

Khan himself has recently voiced frustration over “factionalism” within the party, criticizing the lack of momentum being built for the upcoming protest movement.

With many top aides sidelined following the May 9 crackdown, Khan has increasingly turned to his family. His wife, Bushra Bibi, led several protests before being jailed over the Al-Qadir Trust case. His sister, Aleema Khan, has taken a more public role, while his sons have been lobbying internationally for their father’s release — including a meeting with Richard Grenell, a close ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump.

Diplomatic sources claim that Khan’s imprisonment has surfaced in conversations between Washington and Islamabad. This includes Trump’s meeting with General Munir, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s recent discussions with Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. Following those talks, Dar even compared Khan’s imprisonment to that of Aafia Siddiqui — the Pakistani scientist jailed in the U.S. on terrorism charges.

Such developments have fueled speculation within PTI ranks that Washington, and particularly Trump, may be looking to reinstate Khan for strategic regional gains.

However, experts remain skeptical. “Khan may have come up in the discussions, but I doubt Trump is explicitly advocating for his release,” said Shamshad Ahmed, former foreign secretary of Pakistan. “And I don’t believe Imran Khan would align with Western interests or welcome U.S. intervention,” he added.

The Pakistani military, bolstered by post-war nationalist fervor and media backing, appears in no mood to relinquish control. “Pakistan’s regional significance is being overstated,” argued Hasan Askari Rizvi, political scientist and author of The Military and Politics in Pakistan. “Even if the military sees strategic benefits, there is no incentive to disrupt a setup that completely supports them,” he said.

While PTI’s mass appeal may no longer pressure the military, senior officials told The Diplomat earlier this year that a path back to political relevance remains open to Khan — but only if he abandons his anti-military stance and aligns with the establishment on key issues, such as rekindling strategic ties with Washington.

For now, though, Khan’s protests serve as a way to stay politically relevant. “These demonstrations are about visibility. Khan knows there’s no short-term relief coming his way,” Rizvi added.

Meanwhile, the military’s grip on Pakistan’s political machinery has only tightened. Critics argue that civilian governance is now largely symbolic. Miftah Ismail, former finance minister and co-founder of the Awaam Pakistan party, says the military’s influence is at its highest since the era of General Pervez Musharraf. Yet, he adds, Khan himself shares the blame.

“It began with PTI in 2018. Then came the PDM. And now, even though the PML-N lost the elections, they cling to power without moral legitimacy,” said Ismail, who broke away from the PML-N in 2023 to launch his own platform critical of military overreach.

For those seeking a democratic future for Pakistan, the real “get-out-of-jail-free” card for Khan may lie not with the army — or the United States — but in reconciliation with his political adversaries. A unified democratic front against military domination, however unlikely, may be the only way forward.

But in today’s bitterly fractured political landscape, such unity appears more elusive than ever.